Analysis of field size distribution by lognormal function

Mekunye Francis; Ogbeide Paul Osaze; Adeniji AA

Analysis of field size distribution by lognormal function

Authors
Mekunye Francis, Ogbeide Paul Osaze, Adeniji AA

Abstract
In managing uncertainty and quantifying risk in basing exploratory decision making on investment drilling program the knowledge of available data on the likelihood sizes of discovered fields and minimum speculative capital provide some sense of certainty of success. The truth is that making decisions on risky ventures involves more than looking at the average rate of return or the average present worth. The number of ventures that can reasonably be undertaken to guarantee chance of success of each venture and the magnitude of a success was analyzed by log normal transformation of available sizes from similar fields. The log normal is an important probability function from the view point of distribution of natural resources, such as volumes of petroleum reservoirs as they occur within geologic provinces. The highly skew nature of this distribution indicates that the logarithm of the variable is normally distributed. This paper summarizes the development and application of appropriate frequency distribution for possible assumptions and final outcomes will encourage management decisions. Thus, any group venturing into searching for oil and gas requires assurances of making money. It is all about being sure of making money on the average an in fact we must be fairly certain of making profit from a limited investment.

Download | Pages : 12-15